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"I will be sitting in this seat by 2027," the Prime Minister declared, adding that if our conversation proceeded smoothly, he might welcome the interviewer into Downing Street for a follow-up conversation next year.

For a PM, there's rarely ever time off for leaders. Shortly before we sat down, the PM had been on the phone with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to understand exactly what had happened in Venezuela, where his key friend, US President Donald Trump, had just attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once the discussion, which was far more extended than usual, had finished, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

With the year starts, the Prime Minister appears to have had something of a refresh. Maybe even just a little a rest with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

This appeared to have put him in better spirits than at the difficult conclusion of 2025, a terrible year politically for him.

But are he and his supporters kidding themselves if they think his standing are set to improve?

Leadership Questions

The uncomfortable reality for the PM is that a significant number of his fellow MPs believe he's not very good at his job. Some of them would rather gamble and get him out this year.

However Sir Keir was dismissing such talk in the interview on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he told me he'd be "evaluated at the next election", maintaining nobody would take his five-year mandate from him – even if the most effective strategy of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 could be for Labour to switch leader.

"This is the fight of our times and I plan to guide the party," he said.

Upcoming Local Votes

The challenge for the prime minister is that he will be scrutinised far sooner than then – in a major set of elections in May throughout the UK. He attempted to contend, maybe excessively, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

True – up to a point. But even though he may be reluctant to acknowledge it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would resign, even if one of his MPs contested his leadership for the job, if those elections be catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He attempted to explain his unpopularity by saying the electorate was reasonably impatient for things to improve. He aimed to assure the interviewer, and the public, that 2026 would be a change.

The economic situation would improve despite rising unemployment, he claimed, when plans the government enacted during their first rocky year began to show results.

• He committed to close asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, but he did not set a specific date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it wasn't a done deal, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He revealed for the first time that Western allies were now discussing how to coordinate US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to safeguard a possible peace.

His big argument is that this year the country will "reach a turning point".

Political Challenges

The prime minister may have spoken with more energy than observed from him for a while – more relaxed, maybe, with more time to talk.

But despite encountering calls from many directions for a more decisive strategy, with greater political clarity, more dynamism, more speed and more urgency, his explanations were familiar ones.

Given that he is in such significant political trouble, does he need a change of tack?

No administration, and especially not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, has everything its as planned.

Sir Keir's challenges are not only because government is difficult, but because he and his team have faltered, even in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister told me that he was sorry for saying he was "pleased" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an controversy when statements he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Starmer attributed it to "the system" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is facing evident political perils as the year progresses. His close relationship with the US president entails a new complication after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the notion he would be at ease with such action seems far-fetched.

International Law and Brexit

He asserted he was a "longtime advocate of international law" but we "just do not have the full picture at the moment".

Some wanted him to condemn it prior to the interview. And the administration is expected to face further scrutiny to give an definitive view in Parliament in the near future.

And there has always been bubbling pressure in the Labour ranks to reverse or renegotiate some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM rejects he's heading in that direction, but his new more concrete plan to align more closely with the EU's single market – the huge economic European trading zone – will probably trigger accusations that he is breaking his vow never to try to undo the results that followed Brexit.

A move to align with more of the single market will please many on his backbenches, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to